What should make you push harder, right now
A common mistake is campaigning when a sector is already busiest, by which point it's often too late. Start communication 2–8 weeks before the expected peak, and test the exact lead time against your own conversion data. The four trigger types below aren't equally predictable, and knowing which is which changes how far ahead you can plan.
Financing demand is often predictable before the customer applies. About 73% of the triggers identified in Froda's own data are tied to predictable business events, like seasonal preparation, inventory purchases, equipment investment, or expansion, not sudden or reactive needs. Most financing needs don't appear overnight. A partner that already has transaction data on a customer can often see this coming before the customer starts actively looking for credit.
4 types of trigger, and how to spot each
Fiscal
Why it matters: These are the most predictable cash-out events in a business's year. The date is fixed, known months in advance, and applies to almost every business in a market at the same time. That makes fiscal triggers the easiest to plan a whole calendar around.
How to spot it: Build the calendar once per market from the local tax authority's own filing schedule, then treat every deadline as a campaign anchor 2–3 weeks ahead of it.
Commercial
Why it matters: These are demand-side events: customers are about to spend, which means the businesses selling to them need to be stocked, staffed, and ready first. The bigger the expected commercial spike, the earlier and larger the financing need tends to be.
How to spot it: Work backwards from the commercial date using your industry data (see Industry insights). A segment whose revenue peaks in month X usually needs financing 1–3 months before that.
Business
Why it matters: Unlike fiscal and commercial triggers, these are specific to one business, not a whole market. But they're often the moment closest to an actual application, since something concrete has just happened that needs funding.
How to spot it: These show up in behavior, not the calendar. A spike in product page visits, an app login after a long gap, or a support query about growth are all signals worth wiring up as real-time triggers.
Macro
Why it matters: Macro events don't always create more borrowing, but they change what message resonates. Falling rates make investment framing land better; rising costs make liquidity-protection framing land better. Ignoring the macro backdrop risks the wrong tone at the wrong time.
How to spot it: Track your own market's rate trend and business-confidence index roughly quarterly. You don't need to react daily, but a real shift over 6–12 months is worth reflecting in messaging.
These don't always create more borrowing on their own, but they consistently change what message resonates. A fiscal deadline calls for cash-flow framing; a new contract calls for growth framing.
Once you've spotted one: how hard to push
A trigger tells you when; this tells you how much. Match the intensity to the confidence of the signal.
Maximise
Highest-confidence window. CRM, paid, in-product, homepage, push, lifecycle: everything.
Activate
A real, secondary opportunity worth dedicated activity.
Baseline
Stay visible. Never go quiet: quiet periods aren't zero demand.
Reduce
Lower spend, but don't drop to "off" without first-party proof there's no value left.
Fiscal and commercial triggers usually justify Maximise or Activate, since they're predictable and market-wide. A single business-level trigger (one customer, one contract) is often best served by staying at Baseline and letting the always-on layer catch it, rather than launching a dedicated campaign for one signal. See Campaign timing and ideas for how to put this into an actual launch checklist.
Sources: Uploaded Froda Sweden/Denmark dashboards · Uploaded France/Shine dashboards · ECB Bank Lending Survey. See full source list.